Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.470 IF 3.470
  • IF 5-year value: 4.009 IF 5-year
    4.009
  • CiteScore value: 3.45 CiteScore
    3.45
  • SNIP value: 1.166 SNIP 1.166
  • IPP value: 3.28 IPP 3.28
  • SJR value: 1.929 SJR 1.929
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 64 Scimago H
    index 64
  • h5-index value: 43 h5-index 43
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-81
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-81
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 05 Jul 2019

Research article | 05 Jul 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP).

Proxy surrogate reconstructions for Europe and the estimation of their uncertainties

Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
  • Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

Abstract. Combining proxy information and climate model simulations allows reconciling both sources of information about past climates. This, in turn, strengthens our understanding of past climatic changes. The analogue or proxy surrogate reconstruction method is a computationally cheap data assimilation approach to benefit from the advantages of both data sources. We use the approach to reconstruct European summer mean temperature from the 13th century until present using the Euro 2k set of proxy-records and a pool of global climate simulation output fields. Previous applications of the analogue method to combine proxy records and simulations did not provide uncertainty ranges. Here, we provide several ways of estimating reconstruction uncertainty for the analogue method, which take into account the non-climate part of the variability in each proxy record.

In general, our reconstruction agrees with the Euro 2k reconstruction, which had been conducted with two different statistical methods and using no information from model simulations. At interannual timescales, differences between our reconstruction and the Euro 2k reconstructions may be large, but they are much smaller at multi-decadal timescales. In both methodological approaches, the decades around year 1600 CE were the coldest. The approaches do not agree, however, on the warmest preindustrial decades, which the Euro 2k reconstruction places in the early 15th century and the analogue approach in the early 18th century.

The surrogate reconstructions also represent the local variations of the observed proxies even under uncertainty but local uncertainties of the temperature reconstructions tend to be large in areas that are poorly covered by the proxy records. Uncertainties highlight the ambiguity of field based reconstructions constrained by a limited set of proxies.

Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 30 Aug 2019)
Status: open (until 30 Aug 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Data sets

Reconstruction Data and Information for this manuscript O. Bothe and E. Zorita https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/EMBDH

Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Viewed  
Total article views: 194 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
146 43 5 194 3 4
  • HTML: 146
  • PDF: 43
  • XML: 5
  • Total: 194
  • BibTeX: 3
  • EndNote: 4
Views and downloads (calculated since 05 Jul 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 05 Jul 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 166 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 166 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 18 Jul 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields of simulated climates to learn more about the past climates. Here, we detail how one can compute uncertainty estimates for such reconstructions of past climates. This higlights the ambiguity of the reconstruction. We further show that such a reconstruction for European summer temperature agrees well with a more common approach.
One can use the similarity between sparse indirect observations of past climates and full fields...
Citation