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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-174
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-174
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 21 Jan 2020

Submitted as: research article | 21 Jan 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal CP.

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner1, Esther C. Brady1, Anni Zhao2, Chris Brierley2, Yarrow Axford3, Emilie Capron4, Aline Govin5, Jeremy Hoffman6,7, Elizabeth Isaacs2, Masa Kageyama5, Paolo Scussolini8, Polychronis C. Tzedakis2, Charlie Williams9, Eric Wolff10, Ayako Abe-Ouchi11, Pascale Braconnot5, Silvana Ramos Buarque12, Jian Cao13, Anne de Vernal14, Maria Vittoria Guarino15, Chuncheng Guo16, Allegra N. LeGrande17, Gerrit Lohmann18, Katrin Meissner19, Laurie Menviel19, Kerim Nisancioglu20,21, Ryouta O'ishi11, David Salas Y Melia12, Xioaoxu Shi18, Marie Sicard5, Louise Sime15, Robert Tomas1, Evgeny Volodin22, Nicolas Yeung19, Qiong Zhang23, Zhonghi Zhang16, and Weipeng Zheng24 Bette L. Otto-Bliesner et al.
  • 1Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80305, USA
  • 2University College London, Department of Geography, WC1E 6BT, UK
  • 3Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Illinois, USA
  • 4Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, 2200, Denmark
  • 5LSCE-IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), University Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, 91190, France
  • 6Science Museum of Virginia, Richmond, Virginia, 23220, USA
  • 7Center for EnvironmentalStudies, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, 23220, USA
  • 8Earth and Climate Group, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
  • 9School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
  • 10Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, UK
  • 11Atmosphere Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8564, Japan
  • 12CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Toulouse, France
  • 13Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
  • 14Departement des sciences de la Terre et de l’atmosphere, Universite du Quebec, Montreal, Canada
  • 15British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
  • 16NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen5007, Norway
  • 17NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York City, USA
  • 18Alfred Wegener Institute - Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bussestr. 24, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 19Climate Change Research Centre, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australi
  • 20Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 41,5007, Bergen, Norway
  • 21Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
  • 22State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China
  • 23Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
  • 24LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to CMIP6 is the Tier 1 lig127k experiment, designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models and following a common experimental protocol. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which (except for two) have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 2.1 to 5.6 °C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the piControl in June–July–August and a much-reduced minimum (August–September) summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation and areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 ka than 6 ka.

New syntheses for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the specified boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.

The CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, have potential implications for confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, Arctic sea ice, and the stability of the Greenland ice sheet.

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner et al.

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Bette L. Otto-Bliesner et al.

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Short summary
The CMIP6-PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127k simulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average of the last 2 decades.
The CMIP6-PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to...
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