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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-7
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Research article 26 Feb 2018

Research article | 26 Feb 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

The ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon climate through the Last Millennium as simulated by the PMIP3

Charan Teja Tejavath1, Karumuri Ashok1, Supriyo Chakraborty2, and Rengaswamy Ramesh3 Charan Teja Tejavath et al.
  • 1Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India
  • 2Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
  • 3School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, NISER, Bhubaneswar, India

Abstract. Using seven model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the mean summer (June–September) climate and its variability in India during the Last Millennium (LM; CE 850–1849) with emphasis on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA), after validation of the simulated current day climate and trends.

We find that the above (below) LM-mean summer global temperatures during the MWP (LIA) are associated with relatively higher (lower) number of concurrent El Niños as compared to La Niñas. The models simulate higher (lower) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during the MWP (LIA). This is notwithstanding a strong simulated negative correlation between the timeseries of NINO3.4 index and that of the area-averaged ISMR, Interestingly, the percentage of strong El Niños (La Niñas) causing negative (positive) ISMR anomalies is higher in the LIA (MWP), a non-linearity that apparently is important for causing higher ISMR in the MWP. Distribution of simulated boreal summer velocity potential at 850hPa during MWP in models, in general, shows a zone of anomalous convergence in the central tropical Pacific flanked by two zones of divergence, suggesting a westward shift in the Walker circulation as compared to the simulations for LM as well as and a majority of historical simulations, and current day observed signal. The anomalous divergence centre in the west also extends into the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in an anomalous convergence zone over India and therefore excess rainfall during the MWP as compared to the LM; the results are qualitative, given the inter-model spread.

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Charan Teja Tejavath et al.
Charan Teja Tejavath et al.
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Analysing multiple CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Millennium simulations, we find that the Indian region was warmer and wetter during the medieval warm period, and cooler and drier in the little ice age, as compared to the last millennium mean conditions. This supports findings from the few available proxy findings. The Indian summer monsoon-ENSO association is robust through the last millennium, but varied on centennial time scales.
Analysing multiple CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Millennium simulations, we find that the Indian region was...
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