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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-63
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 12 Jul 2018

Research article | 12 Jul 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP).

Evolution of the Arabian Sea upwelling in the past centuries and in the future as simulated by Earth System Models

Xing Yi, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita Xing Yi et al.
  • Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str.1, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany

Abstract. Arabian Sea upwelling in the past has been generally studied based on the sediment records. We apply two earth system models and analyse the simulated water vertical velocity to investigate the variations of the coastal upwelling in the western Arabian Sea over the last millennium. In addition, two models with slightly different configurations are also employed to study the changes in upwelling in the 21st century under the strongest and the weakest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. With a negative long-term trend caused by the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling over the last millennium is found to be closely correlated with the sea surface temperature, the Indian summer Monsoon and sediment records. The future upwelling under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveals a negative trend, in contrast with the positive trend displayed by the upwelling favourable along-shore winds. Therefore, it is likely that other factors, like water stratification in the upper ocean layers caused by the stronger surface warming overrides the effect from the upwelling favourable wind. No significant trend is found for the upwelling under the RCP2.6 scenario, which is likely due to a compensation between the opposing effects of the increase in upwelling favourable winds and the stratification of the water column.

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Data sets

CMIP5 simulations of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) based on the MPI-ESM-P model: The past1000 experiment, served by ESGF J. Jungclaus, M. Giorgetta, C. Reick, S. Legutke, V. Brovkin, T. Crueger, M. Esch, K. Fieg, N. Fischer, K. Glushak, V. Gayler, H. Haak, H.-D. Hollweg, S. Kinne, L. Kornblueh, D. Matei, T. Mauritsen, U. Mikolajewicz, W. Müller, D. Notz, T. Pohlmann, T. Raddatz, S. Rast, E. Roeckner, M. Salzmann, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, J. Segschneider, K. Six, M. Stockhause, J. Wegner, H. Widmann, K.-H. Wieners, M. Claussen, J. Marotzke, and B. Stevens https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MXEPpk

CMIP5 simulations of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) based on the MPI-ESM-LR model: The rcp26 experiment, served by ESGF M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, S. Legutke, V. Brovkin, T. Crueger, M. Esch, K. Fieg, K. Glushak, V. Gayler, H. Haak, H.-D. Hollweg, S. Kinne, L. Kornblueh, D. Matei, T. Mauritsen, U. Mikolajewicz, W. Müller, D. Notz, T. Raddatz, S. Rast, E. Roeckner, M. Salzmann, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, J. Segschneider, K. Six, M. Stockhause, J. Wegner, H. Widmann, K.-H. Wieners, M. Claussen, J. Marotzke, and B. Stevens https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MXELr2

CMIP5 simulations of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) based on the MPI-ESM-LR model: The rcp85 experiment, served by ESGF M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, S. Legutke, V. Brovkin, T. Crueger, M. Esch, K. Fieg, K. Glushak, V. Gayler, H. Haak, H.-D. Hollweg, S. Kinne, L. Kornblueh, D. Matei, T. Mauritsen, U. Mikolajewicz, W. Müller, D. Notz, T. Raddatz, S. Rast, E. Roeckner,M. Salzmann, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, J. Segschneider, K. Six, M. Stockhause, J. Wegner, H. Widmann, K.-H. Wieners, M. Claussen, J. Marotzke, and B. Stevens https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.MXELr8

Climate Variability and Change since 850 C.E.: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) B. L. Otto-Bliesner, E. C. Brady, J. Fasullo, A. Jahn, L. Landrum, S. Stevenson, N. Rosenbloom, A. Mai, and G. Strand https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1

The Community Climate System Model Version 4 P. R. Gent, G. Danabasoglu, L. J. Donner, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, S. R. Jayne, D. M. Lawrence, R. B. Neale, P. J. Rasch, M. Vertenstein, P. H. Worley, Z.-L. Yang, and M. Zhang https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1

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Short summary
In this study, we analyse the outputs of Earth System Models to investigate the Arabian Sea upwelling for the last 1000 years and in the 21st century. Due to the orbital forcing of the models, the upwelling in the past is found to reveal a negative long-term trend, which matches the observed sediment records. In the future under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming of the sea water tends to stabilize the surface layer and thus interrupts the upwelling.
In this study, we analyse the outputs of Earth System Models to investigate the Arabian Sea...
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