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https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. 
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Research article
29 Sep 2016
1Department of Earth Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
2Department of Geography and the Human Environment, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
3Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel
4Department of Natural Sciences, the Open University of Israel, Ra'nana, Israel
5Porter School of Environmental Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
Received: 12 Sep 2016 – Accepted for review: 28 Sep 2016 – Discussion started: 29 Sep 2016
Abstract. This work presents a statistical reconstruction of average mid-winter (DJF) temperature in Jerusalem since 1750. It is a first comprehensive attempt to reconstruct the temperature in Jerusalem, as a good representation of the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climate. This representativeness is verified here. The data has been reconstructed by using a statistical model based on Principal Component Regression (PCR), using both instrumental data and high temporal resolution records of proxy data, including tree ring chronologies from Jordan, and records of DJF precipitation and Sea Level Pressure from central and Western Europe. A split validation procedure has resulted in a 0.73 correlation between observed and reconstructed temperature. The warming trend of last decades is well noted in the reconstruction and is in line with other studies. Winters which were cold/warm were historically documented as wet/dry, respectively, consistent with earlier studies pointing a strong relationship between Jerusalem temperatures and precipitation. It is shown here for the first time that the 'First Aliyah' (immigration) to Israel during 1882-1904 initiated during favouring climate conditions (cool and wet) to establish an agricultural community in the region. These conditions were found to be exceptional compared to other periods since 1750.
Citation: Hochman, A., Saaroni, H., Bar-Matthews, M., Ziv, B., and Alpert, P.: Mid-winter (DJF) temperature reconstruction in Jerusalem since 1750 with some regional implications, Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90, 2016.
2Department of Geography and the Human Environment, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
3Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel
4Department of Natural Sciences, the Open University of Israel, Ra'nana, Israel
5Porter School of Environmental Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
Citation: Hochman, A., Saaroni, H., Bar-Matthews, M., Ziv, B., and Alpert, P.: Mid-winter (DJF) temperature reconstruction in Jerusalem since 1750 with some regional implications, Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90, 2016.
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- Advances in Geosciences
- Annales Geophysicae
- Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics
- Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
- Biogeosciences
- Climate of the Past
- Earth Surface Dynamics
- Earth System Dynamics
- Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems
- Geoscientific Model Development
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
- Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
- Ocean Science
- Solid Earth
- SOIL
- The Cryosphere
- Geoscience Communication