Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.174 IF 3.174
  • IF 5-year value: 3.841 IF 5-year 3.841
  • CiteScore value: 3.48 CiteScore 3.48
  • SNIP value: 1.078 SNIP 1.078
  • SJR value: 1.981 SJR 1.981
  • IPP value: 3.38 IPP 3.38
  • h5-index value: 42 h5-index 42
  • Scimago H index value: 58 Scimago H index 58
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-3551-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-3551-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 14 Aug 2012

Research article | 14 Aug 2012

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript for further review has not been submitted.

On the differences between two semi-empirical sea-level models for the last two millennia

M. Vermeer1, S. Rahmstorf2, A. Kemp3, and B. Horton4 M. Vermeer et al.
  • 1Department of Real Estate, Planning and Geoinformatics, School of Engineering, Aalto University, P.O. Box 11200, 00076 Aalto, Finland
  • 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
  • 4Sea Level Research Laboratory, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA

Abstract. We compare hindcasts of global mean sea level over the past millennium obtained using two semi-empirical models linking temperature and sea-level rise. The models differ in that one of them includes a term for a very long-term sea-level rise component unfolding over many millennia. On short (century) time scales, both models give very similar results.

Proxy sea-level reconstructions from the northern (North Carolina) and southern (New Zealand and Tasmania) hemispheres are used to test the ability of both models to reproduce the longer-term sea-level evolution. In both comparisons the model including the second term produces a markedly better fit from 1000 AD to the present.

When both models are used for generating sea-level projections, they behave similarly out to 2100 AD. Further out, to 2300–2500 AD, the projections differ significantly, in no small part due to different values for the sea-level response time scale τ obtained. We conclude that careful model validation on long time scales is important before attempting multi-century projections.

M. Vermeer et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Interactive discussion
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
M. Vermeer et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 2,171 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,121 727 323 2,171 39 80
  • HTML: 1,121
  • PDF: 727
  • XML: 323
  • Total: 2,171
  • BibTeX: 39
  • EndNote: 80
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)
Cited  
Saved  
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 19 Jan 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation
Share