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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-31-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
03 Jan 2012
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript for further review has not been submitted.
A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors
D. V. Divine1, F. Godtliebsen1,2, and H. Rue3 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Tromsø, 9037, Norway
2Norwegian Polar Institute, FRAM Centre, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
3Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway
Abstract. The paper proposes an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models based on tie points of mixed origin.

Citation: Divine, D. V., Godtliebsen, F., and Rue, H.: A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors, Clim. Past Discuss., 8, 31-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-31-2012, 2012.
D. V. Divine et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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RC C13: 'Review of Divine et al. ms', Maarten Blaauw, 23 Jan 2012 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC C35: 'Review.', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Feb 2012 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC C38: 'Review of “A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors” by Divine et al', Anonymous Referee #3, 09 Feb 2012 Printer-friendly Version 
D. V. Divine et al.
D. V. Divine et al.

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