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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
23 Dec 2009
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript for further review has not been submitted.
Refining error estimates for a millennial temperature reconstruction
M. N. Juckes STFC, Rutherford Appleton Lab, Chilton, Didcot, OX11 0QX, UK
Abstract. The statistical uncertainties in a 1000 year Northern Hemisphere mean temperature reconstruction obtained from 15 proxy chronologies are examined in detail by analysing the range of estimates obtained from all possible subsets of the proxy collection with up to 6 proxies omitted. The study is motivated in part by the large range of recently published reconstructions in the 15th and 16th centuries. The uncertainty estimates support the conclusions of the 3rd and 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports concerning the likelihood that temperatures at the end of the 20th century were likely (greater than 66% confidence) to have been exceptional. It is also shown that the last ten years to date have been warmer than any decade of the past millennium with 95% confidence.

Citation: Juckes, M. N.: Refining error estimates for a millennial temperature reconstruction, Clim. Past Discuss.,, in review, 2009.
M. N. Juckes
M. N. Juckes


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