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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
01 Jul 2009
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript for further review has not been submitted.
Strong indications for nonlinear dynamics during Dansgaard-Oeschger events
H. Braun Heidelberg Academy of Sciences and Humanities, Heidelberg, Germany
Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Abstract. Many climate records show the occurrence of large amplitude (10–15 K), millennial-scale warming events during glacial times, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. So far these events have almost exclusively been investigated by means of linear time series analysis. The scope of this paper is to test if the assumption of linearity is fulfilled during DO events. By means of a surrogate-based Monte Carlo method, I here demonstrate that the 60 000-year long δ18O-record from the NGRIP ice core from Greenland allows to reject the null hypothesis of linearity beyond any reasonable level of doubt. Instead, the ice core record supports the interpretation that the events represent regime switches between different states of operation of glacial climate. As a conclusion, future studies on DO events should focus on the development and the application of more adequate (i.e., nonlinear) methods of time series analysis.

Citation: Braun, H.: Strong indications for nonlinear dynamics during Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Clim. Past Discuss.,, in review, 2009.
H. Braun
Interactive discussionStatus: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
RC C601: 'The stats are correct, but very low level of analysis', Michel Crucifix, 20 Aug 2009 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C609: 'Reply to Michel Crucifix', Holger Braun, 22 Aug 2009 Printer-friendly Version 
RC C622: 'Referee report', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Aug 2009 Printer-friendly Version 
H. Braun
H. Braun


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