A nonlinear method for detecting climate mutation: a case study for summer climate change in China
S. Q. Wan1,3, G. L. Feng2, L. Wang1, C. H. Gu1, Y. L. Hu1, and G. H. Zhou11Yangzhou Meteorological Office, Yangzhou 225009, China 2LCS, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 3Department of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou Universtiy, Lanzhou 730000, China
Received: 21 Aug 2008 – Discussion started: 01 Oct 2008
Abstract. In this paper, we explored the dynamical mechanism of anomalous summer climate late 1970s in China applying a new method, i.e., a dynamics index-Q based on phase-space reconstruction. The interesting results show that different climate variable have the similar dynamics property in different regions, they reflect an intrinsic dynamics interior climate system, which may be associated with the teleconnection wave trains mainly triggered by the Tibetan Plateau, and reveals some of causes making North China drought indirectly. However, the Phenomena are hardly possible found via any statistic methodology.
Wan, S. Q., Feng, G. L., Wang, L., Gu, C. H., Hu, Y. L., and Zhou, G. H.: A nonlinear method for detecting climate mutation: a case study for summer climate change in China, Clim. Past Discuss., 4, 1047-1060, doi:10.5194/cpd-4-1047-2008, 2008.