Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-2-357-2006
© Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
 
03 Jul 2006
Review status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). A final paper in CP is not foreseen.
On the verification of climate reconstructions
G. Bürger and U. Cubasch Institut für Meteorologie, FU, Berlin, Germany
Abstract. The skill of proxy-based reconstructions of Northern hemisphere temperature is reassessed. Using a rigorous verification method, we show that previous estimates of skill exceeding 50% mainly reflect a sampling bias, and that more realistic values vary about 25%. The bias results from the strong trends in the instrumental period, together with the special partitioning into calibration and validation parts. This setting is characterized by very few degrees of freedom and leaves the regression susceptible to nonsense predictors. Basing the new estimates on 100 random resamplings of the instrumental period we avoid the problem of a priori different calibration and validation statistics and obtain robust estimates plus uncertainty. The low verification scores apply to an entire suite of multiproxy regression-based models, including the most recent variants. It is doubtful whether the estimated levels of verifiable predictive power are strong enough to resolve the current debate on the millennial climate.

Citation: Bürger, G. and Cubasch, U.: On the verification of climate reconstructions, Clim. Past Discuss., 2, 357-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-2-357-2006, 2006.
G. Bürger and U. Cubasch
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC S139: 'Paper Not Suitable for Publication', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
SC S153: 'A step in the right direction', Eduardo Zorita, 05 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
RC S161: 'Dissapointing Comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
AC S156: 'reply to reviewer', Gerd Bürger, 07 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
RC S163: 'Further Evidence Submission Lacks Merit', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
AC S171: 'Only this', Gerd Bürger, 08 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
SC S182: 'Comments on the rev#2 comments', Joel Guiot, 10 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC S173: 'Not ready for publication', Anonymous Referee #3, 08 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
AC S187: 'Some clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 13 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
RC S221: 'More clarifications', Anonymous Referee #3, 21 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
AC S288: 'clarifications', Gerd Bürger, 18 Aug 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
RC S294: 'Corrections of BC errors', Anonymous Referee #3, 22 Aug 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
AC S298: 'closing points', Gerd Bürger, 23 Aug 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
RC S300: 'Final comments', Anonymous Referee #3, 23 Aug 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC S180: 'Comment 3 of rev. 3, not justified', Eduardo Zorita, 09 Jul 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC S269: 'no idea what a comment subject is ...', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Aug 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
RC S273: 'lack of credibility', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Aug 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
 
AC S334: 'lessons learned', Gerd Bürger, 04 Sep 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC S386: 'Comment', Dmitry Sonechkin, 20 Sep 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
 
EC S389: 'Editorial decision', Victor Brovkin, 20 Sep 2006 Printer-friendly Version 
G. Bürger and U. Cubasch
G. Bürger and U. Cubasch

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