An astronomical correspondence to the 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change
A. M. Kelsey1, F. W. Menk2, and P. T. Moss11School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia 2Centre for Space Physics, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Information Technology, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, 2308, Australia
Received: 09 Sep 2015 – Accepted for review: 22 Sep 2015 – Discussion started: 20 Oct 2015
Abstract. The existence of a ~ 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change is well-established, manifesting in Bond ice-rafting debris (IRD) events, Dansgaard–Oeschger atmospheric temperature cycle, and cyclical climatic conditions precursory to increased El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and intensity. This cycle is central to questions on Holocene climate stability and hence anthropogenic impacts on climate (deMenocal et al., 2000). To date no causal mechanism has been identified, although solar forcing has been previously suggested. Here we show that interacting combination of astronomical variables related to Earth's orbit may be causally related to this cycle and several associated key isotopic spectral signals. The ~ 1470 year climate cycle may thus be regarded as a high frequency extension of the Milankovitch precessional cycle, incorporating orbital, solar and lunar forcing through interaction with the tropical and anomalistic years and Earth's rotation.
Kelsey, A. M., Menk, F. W., and Moss, P. T.: An astronomical correspondence to the 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change, Clim. Past Discuss., 11, 4895-4915, doi:10.5194/cpd-11-4895-2015, 2015.