Correcting mean and extremes in monthly precipitation from 8 regional climate models over Europe
B. Kurnik, L. Kajfež-Bogataj, and A. Ceglar
University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical faculty, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Received: 04 Feb 2012 – Accepted for review: 09 Mar 2012 – Discussion started: 26 Mar 2012
Abstract. We corrected monthly precipitation from 8 regional climate models using statistical bias correction. All models were corrected according to observations and parameters for bias correction were obtained for all models separately in every grid cells over European domain, using data between 1961 and 1990. Bias correction was validated in the period between 1991 and 2010 with RMSE, Brier score and Brier skill score. The results are encouraging, as mean and extremes were effectively corrected. After applying correction, large biases over Alps, at the East Adriatic cost, west coast of Norway and at the east end of the domain were removed. RMSE of corrected precipitation was lower than RMSE of simulated in 85% of European area and correction for all models failed in only 1.5% of European area. Also extremes were effectively corrected. According to the Brier skill score the probability for dry months was corrected in more than 52% of the European area and heavy precipitation events were corrected in almost 90% of the area. All validation measures suggest the correction of monthly precipitation was successful and therefore we can argue that the corrected precipitation fields will improve results of the climate impact models.
Kurnik, B., Kajfež-Bogataj, L., and Ceglar, A.: Correcting mean and extremes in monthly precipitation from 8 regional climate models over Europe, Clim. Past Discuss., 8, 953-986, doi:10.5194/cpd-8-953-2012, 2012.