|
12 Jul 2011
Status : this preprint was under review for the journal CP but the revision was not accepted.
Rates of global temperature change during the past millennium
C. Shen , W.-C. Wang , G. Zeng , Y. Peng , and Y. Xu
We examine the characteristics (amplitude and phase) of the temporal variation in the rates of global-mean surface temperature change during the past millennium. The study was conducted by applying 20-, 30-, and 50-yr sliding windows to the observations of recent century and reconstructions of earlier times. The analysis focuses on the characteristics of the 20th century within the context of the millennium as well as their sensitivity to the low frequency variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and time scales. On 20-yr time scale, comparable rates to that of the 20th century in both amplitude and phase occur in earlier nine centuries. The peak in the amplitude of rates in the 20th century on 30-yr time scale, although is not the largest during the past millennium, but is the most persistent. On 50-yr time scale, the 20th century warming rates are the highest and the most persistent during the past millennium. The results also indicate that although the SST variability does not affect much the amplitude of the rates, but the phases is quite different, thus highlighting the importance of the role of oceans in affecting the rates. We also analyzed the characteristics from global climate model (1000–1999 AD) simulations with different climate (solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gases) forcing. Except for the one driven by the solar forcing, other forcing simulates similar amplitudes as the observed ones. However, only greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing can reproduce the persistent high warming rates of the 20th century.
Received: 18 May 2011 – Discussion started: 12 Jul 2011
C. Shen , W.-C. Wang , G. Zeng , Y. Peng , and Y. Xu
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC : Author comment | RC : Referee comment | SC : Short comment | EC : Editor comment
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC : Author comment | RC : Referee comment | SC : Short comment | EC : Editor comment
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
C. Shen , W.-C. Wang , G. Zeng , Y. Peng , and Y. Xu
C. Shen , W.-C. Wang , G. Zeng , Y. Peng , and Y. Xu
Viewed
Total article views: 1,462 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML
PDF
XML
Total
BibTeX
EndNote
907
448
107
1,462
79
120
HTML: 907
PDF: 448
XML: 107
Total: 1,462
BibTeX: 79
EndNote: 120
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)
Month
HTML
PDF
XML
Total
Feb 2013
5
10
3
18
Mar 2013
4
11
0
15
Apr 2013
1
5
0
6
May 2013
3
7
0
10
Jun 2013
10
11
1
22
Jul 2013
1
5
0
6
Aug 2013
10
0
10
Sep 2013
2
10
0
12
Oct 2013
2
5
0
7
Nov 2013
3
7
0
10
Dec 2013
1
5
0
6
Jan 2014
3
6
0
9
Feb 2014
3
8
2
13
Mar 2014
14
13
2
29
Apr 2014
10
5
0
15
May 2014
1
7
0
8
Jun 2014
3
8
1
12
Jul 2014
5
14
0
19
Aug 2014
2
11
0
13
Sep 2014
6
0
6
Oct 2014
1
6
0
7
Nov 2014
4
6
0
10
Dec 2014
5
11
0
16
Jan 2015
2
4
0
6
Feb 2015
7
1
0
8
Mar 2015
11
1
0
12
Apr 2015
14
3
0
17
May 2015
6
3
0
9
Jun 2015
8
1
0
9
Jul 2015
11
2
0
13
Aug 2015
7
2
0
9
Sep 2015
1
2
0
3
Oct 2015
7
3
0
10
Nov 2015
14
3
2
19
Dec 2015
5
0
5
Jan 2016
12
3
0
15
Feb 2016
6
3
1
10
Mar 2016
11
5
0
16
Apr 2016
6
3
0
9
May 2016
4
3
0
7
Jun 2016
5
1
0
6
Jul 2016
4
5
1
10
Aug 2016
4
2
0
6
Sep 2016
4
2
0
6
Oct 2016
4
5
0
9
Nov 2016
6
5
1
12
Dec 2016
4
1
0
5
Jan 2017
7
2
1
10
Feb 2017
13
4
17
Mar 2017
23
4
14
41
Apr 2017
31
2
12
45
May 2017
33
5
9
47
Jun 2017
25
2
8
35
Jul 2017
8
1
1
10
Aug 2017
2
2
0
4
Sep 2017
8
2
0
10
Oct 2017
4
3
0
7
Nov 2017
4
0
4
Dec 2017
11
1
0
12
Jan 2018
8
3
0
11
Feb 2018
13
3
16
Mar 2018
5
5
1
11
Apr 2018
8
2
0
10
May 2018
7
7
4
18
Jun 2018
5
3
0
8
Jul 2018
9
2
1
12
Aug 2018
9
3
0
12
Sep 2018
7
4
0
11
Oct 2018
8
5
0
13
Nov 2018
9
5
1
15
Dec 2018
8
1
0
9
Jan 2019
6
2
0
8
Feb 2019
7
3
0
10
Mar 2019
4
2
0
6
Apr 2019
9
2
1
12
May 2019
3
4
0
7
Jun 2019
4
3
0
7
Jul 2019
5
2
0
7
Aug 2019
8
3
0
11
Sep 2019
2
1
0
3
Oct 2019
1
1
0
2
Nov 2019
6
3
0
9
Dec 2019
8
1
0
9
Jan 2020
1
2
0
3
Feb 2020
13
4
1
18
Mar 2020
4
1
0
5
Apr 2020
2
2
0
4
May 2020
3
0
3
Jun 2020
7
0
7
Jul 2020
9
8
9
26
Aug 2020
4
1
3
8
Sep 2020
1
1
0
2
Oct 2020
5
3
1
9
Nov 2020
5
5
1
11
Dec 2020
2
2
1
5
Jan 2021
5
4
0
9
Feb 2021
7
3
0
10
Mar 2021
5
2
1
8
Apr 2021
3
3
1
7
May 2021
4
1
0
5
Jun 2021
3
1
0
4
Jul 2021
2
5
0
7
Aug 2021
21
0
21
Sep 2021
3
1
0
4
Oct 2021
8
3
0
11
Nov 2021
8
2
0
10
Dec 2021
9
4
0
13
Jan 2022
8
2
0
10
Feb 2022
5
2
0
7
Mar 2022
4
2
1
7
Apr 2022
5
0
5
May 2022
3
2
0
5
Jun 2022
3
0
3
Jul 2022
7
0
7
Aug 2022
5
4
0
9
Sep 2022
2
1
0
3
Oct 2022
5
2
2
9
Nov 2022
10
4
0
14
Dec 2022
13
6
2
21
Jan 2023
3
1
0
4
Feb 2023
5
3
0
8
Mar 2023
5
3
1
9
Apr 2023
5
2
0
7
May 2023
7
0
7
Jun 2023
5
1
0
6
Jul 2023
14
1
15
Aug 2023
7
1
1
9
Sep 2023
7
3
1
11
Oct 2023
14
2
0
16
Nov 2023
4
3
7
Dec 2023
11
0
11
Jan 2024
12
0
12
Feb 2024
16
3
0
19
Mar 2024
13
0
13
Apr 2024
6
3
9
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 01 Feb 2013)
Month
HTML views
PDF downloads
XML downloads
Feb 2013
5
10
3
Mar 2013
9
21
3
Apr 2013
10
26
3
May 2013
13
33
3
Jun 2013
23
44
4
Jul 2013
24
49
4
Aug 2013
24
59
4
Sep 2013
26
69
4
Oct 2013
28
74
4
Nov 2013
31
81
4
Dec 2013
32
86
4
Jan 2014
35
92
4
Feb 2014
38
100
6
Mar 2014
52
113
8
Apr 2014
62
118
8
May 2014
63
125
8
Jun 2014
66
133
9
Jul 2014
71
147
9
Aug 2014
73
158
9
Sep 2014
73
164
9
Oct 2014
74
170
9
Nov 2014
78
176
9
Dec 2014
83
187
9
Jan 2015
85
191
9
Feb 2015
92
192
9
Mar 2015
103
193
9
Apr 2015
117
196
9
May 2015
123
199
9
Jun 2015
131
200
9
Jul 2015
142
202
9
Aug 2015
149
204
9
Sep 2015
150
206
9
Oct 2015
157
209
9
Nov 2015
171
212
11
Dec 2015
171
217
11
Jan 2016
183
220
11
Feb 2016
189
223
12
Mar 2016
200
228
12
Apr 2016
206
231
12
May 2016
210
234
12
Jun 2016
215
235
12
Jul 2016
219
240
13
Aug 2016
223
242
13
Sep 2016
227
244
13
Oct 2016
231
249
13
Nov 2016
237
254
14
Dec 2016
241
255
14
Jan 2017
248
257
15
Feb 2017
261
257
19
Mar 2017
284
261
33
Apr 2017
315
263
45
May 2017
348
268
54
Jun 2017
373
270
62
Jul 2017
381
271
63
Aug 2017
383
273
63
Sep 2017
391
275
63
Oct 2017
395
278
63
Nov 2017
399
278
63
Dec 2017
410
279
63
Jan 2018
418
282
63
Feb 2018
431
282
66
Mar 2018
436
287
67
Apr 2018
444
289
67
May 2018
451
296
71
Jun 2018
456
299
71
Jul 2018
465
301
72
Aug 2018
474
304
72
Sep 2018
481
308
72
Oct 2018
489
313
72
Nov 2018
498
318
73
Dec 2018
506
319
73
Jan 2019
512
321
73
Feb 2019
519
324
73
Mar 2019
523
326
73
Apr 2019
532
328
74
May 2019
535
332
74
Jun 2019
539
335
74
Jul 2019
544
337
74
Aug 2019
552
340
74
Sep 2019
554
341
74
Oct 2019
555
342
74
Nov 2019
561
345
74
Dec 2019
569
346
74
Jan 2020
570
348
74
Feb 2020
583
352
75
Mar 2020
587
353
75
Apr 2020
589
355
75
May 2020
592
355
75
Jun 2020
599
355
75
Jul 2020
608
363
84
Aug 2020
612
364
87
Sep 2020
613
365
87
Oct 2020
618
368
88
Nov 2020
623
373
89
Dec 2020
625
375
90
Jan 2021
630
379
90
Feb 2021
637
382
90
Mar 2021
642
384
91
Apr 2021
645
387
92
May 2021
649
388
92
Jun 2021
652
389
92
Jul 2021
654
394
92
Aug 2021
675
394
92
Sep 2021
678
395
92
Oct 2021
686
398
92
Nov 2021
694
400
92
Dec 2021
703
404
92
Jan 2022
711
406
92
Feb 2022
716
408
92
Mar 2022
720
410
93
Apr 2022
725
410
93
May 2022
728
412
93
Jun 2022
731
412
93
Jul 2022
738
412
93
Aug 2022
743
416
93
Sep 2022
745
417
93
Oct 2022
750
419
95
Nov 2022
760
423
95
Dec 2022
773
429
97
Jan 2023
776
430
97
Feb 2023
781
433
97
Mar 2023
786
436
98
Apr 2023
791
438
98
May 2023
798
438
98
Jun 2023
803
439
98
Jul 2023
817
439
99
Aug 2023
824
440
100
Sep 2023
831
443
101
Oct 2023
845
445
101
Nov 2023
849
445
104
Dec 2023
860
445
104
Jan 2024
872
445
104
Feb 2024
888
448
104
Mar 2024
901
448
104
Apr 2024
907
448
107
Saved
Latest update: 19 Apr 2024