Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2557-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
16 Nov 2010
Review status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
Glacial cycles and solar insolation: the role of orbital, seasonal, and spatial variations
R. K. Kaufmann1 and K. Juselius2 1Boston University, Boston, USA
2University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Abstract. We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to evaluate the relative roles that orbital, seasonal, and spatial variations in solar insolation play in glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390kyr – present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that variations in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit have the greatest explanatory power and that obliquity, precession, and eccentricity are needed to generate an accurate simulation of glacial cycles. Seasonal variations in insolation play a lesser role, while cumulative summer-time insolation has little explanatory power. Finally, solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere generates the more accurate in-sample simulation of surface temperature while ice volume is simulated most accurately by solar insolation in the Southern Hemisphere.

Citation: Kaufmann, R. K. and Juselius, K.: Glacial cycles and solar insolation: the role of orbital, seasonal, and spatial variations, Clim. Past Discuss., 6, 2557-2591, doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2557-2010, 2010.
R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius
R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius
R. K. Kaufmann and K. Juselius

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