Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, México
Received: 30 Aug 2010 – Accepted for review: 17 Sep 2010 – Discussion started: 05 Oct 2010
Abstract. The response of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to solar and volcanic radiative forcings over the past millennium is reanalyzed and extrapolated based on historical data and numerical experiments employing the Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model of the tropical Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere system. The results suggest a self-similarity of the centennial scale component of the reconstructed ENSO record with a shift in frequencies around 1700 AD when the frequencies almost double. This shift of regime puts forward the non-linearity of ENSO climate with a possible centennial scale forecast, suggesting an ENSO trend toward La Niña conditions for the next three decades.
Sánchez-Sesma, J.: Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings, Clim. Past Discuss., 6, 2055-2069, doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010, 2010.