Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Technical note
05 Oct 2010
Review status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings
J. Sánchez-Sesma Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, México
Abstract. The response of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to solar and volcanic radiative forcings over the past millennium is reanalyzed and extrapolated based on historical data and numerical experiments employing the Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model of the tropical Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere system. The results suggest a self-similarity of the centennial scale component of the reconstructed ENSO record with a shift in frequencies around 1700 AD when the frequencies almost double. This shift of regime puts forward the non-linearity of ENSO climate with a possible centennial scale forecast, suggesting an ENSO trend toward La Niña conditions for the next three decades.

Citation: Sánchez-Sesma, J.: Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings, Clim. Past Discuss., 6, 2055-2069, doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010, 2010.
J. Sánchez-Sesma
J. Sánchez-Sesma

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