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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">CPD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Climate of the Past Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">CPD</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1814-9359</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/cpd-8-321-2012</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lenton</surname>
<given-names>T. M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Livina</surname>
<given-names>V. N.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dakos</surname>
<given-names>V.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Scheffer</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter,  Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4  7TJ, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen  University, Wageningen, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>12</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>8</volume>
<issue>1</issue>
<fpage>321</fpage>
<lpage>348</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
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<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/8/321/2012/cpd-8-321-2012.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/8/321/2012/cpd-8-321-2012.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The last deglaciation was characterised by two abrupt warming events,
      at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the
      Younger Dryas, but their underlying causes are unclear. Some abrupt
      climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point,
      in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the
      climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning
      signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations. However, the
      abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events during the last ice age were
      probably triggered by stochastic fluctuations without bifurcation or
      early warning, and whether the onset of the Bølling-Allerød (DO
      event 1) was preceded by slowing down or not is debated. Here we show
      that the interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the
      Younger Dryas, as recorded in three Greenland ice cores with two
      different climate proxies, was accompanied by a robust slowing down in
      climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability, consistent
      with approaching bifurcation. Prior to the Bølling warming there
      was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing
      down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by
      a stochastic fluctuation. The Bølling warming marked a distinct
      destabilisation of the climate system, which excited an internal mode
      of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
      strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. There is some
      evidence for slowing down in the transition to and during the Younger
      Dryas. We infer that a bifurcation point was finally approached at the
      end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak
      Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate
      tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. The lack of
      a large triggering perturbation at the end of the Younger Dryas, and
      the fact that subsequent meltwater perturbations did not cause
      sustained cooling, support the bifurcation hypothesis.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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