Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core
1Dipartimento di Fisica Generale dell'Università, and Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario (IFSI–INAF), Torino, Italy
2Geosciences Department & Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France, and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los A
3Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565, USA
Abstract. We evaluate the contribution of natural variability to the modern decrease in foraminiferal δ18O by relying on a 2200-years-long, high-resolution record of oxygen isotopic ratio from a Central Mediterranean sediment core. Pre-industrial values are used to train and test two sets of algorithms that are able to forecast the natural variability in δ18O over the last 150 yr. These algorithms are based on autoregressive models and neural networks, respectively; they are applied separately to each of the δ18O series' significant variability components, rather than to the complete series. The separate components are extracted by singular-spectrum analysis and have narrow-band spectral content, which reduces the forecast error. By comparing the sum of the predicted components to the actual values during the Industrial Era, we deduce that the natural contribution to the modern δ18O variation decreased gradually, until it reached roughly 40% as early as the end of the 1970s.