Climate of the Past Discussions www.clim-past-discuss.net 1814-9340 1814-9359 6 3 2010 10.5194/cpd-6-801-2010 http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/6/801/2010/ http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/6/801/2010/cpd-6-801-2010.html http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/6/801/2010/cpd-6-801-2010.pdf 801 815 2010-05-12 Climate change and the demise of Minoan civilization A. A. Tsonis aatsonis@uwm.edu K. L. Swanson G. Sugihara P. A. Tsonis Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0202, USA Department of Biology, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH 45469, USA Climate change has been implicated in the success and downfall of several ancient civilizations. Here we present a synthesis of historical, climatic, and geological evidence that supports the hypothesis that climate change may have been responsible for the slow demise of Minoan civilization. Using proxy ENSO and precipitation reconstruction data in the period 1650–1980 we present empirical and quantitative evidence that El Niño causes drier conditions in the area of Crete. This result is supported by modern data analysis as well as by model simulations. Though not very strong, the ENSO-Mediterranean drying signal appears to be robust, and its overall effect was accentuated by a series of unusually strong and long-lasting El Niños during the time of the Minoan decline. We show that a change in the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system occurred around 3000 BC, which culminated in a series of strong and frequent El Niños starting at about 1450 BC and lasting for several centuries. 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