Clim. Past Discuss., 6, 585-626, 2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). A final paper in CP is not foreseen.
Glacial cycles: exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics
R. K. Kaufmann1 and K. Juselius2
1Department of Geography and Environment, 675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
2University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics, Øster Farimasgade 5, Building 26, 1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark

Abstract. We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr–present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles.

Citation: Kaufmann, R. K. and Juselius, K.: Glacial cycles: exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics, Clim. Past Discuss., 6, 585-626, doi:10.5194/cpd-6-585-2010, 2010.
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