Multiscale regression model to infer historical temperatures in a central Mediterranean sub-regional area N. Diodato1, G. Bellocchi1,2, C. Bertolin3, and D. Camuffo3 1MetEROBS – Met European Research Observatory, GEWEX-CEOP Network, World Climate Research Programme, via Monte Pino snc, 82100 Benevento, Italy 2Grassland Ecosystem Research Unit, French National Institute of Agricultural Research, avenue du Brézet 234, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France 3Atmosphere and Ocean Science Institute, National Research Council of Italy, corso Stati Uniti 4, 35127 Padua, Italy
Received: 15 Oct 2010 – Accepted: 12 Nov 2010 – Published: 01 Dec 2010
Abstract. To reconstruct sub-regional European climate over the past centuries,
several efforts have been made using historical datasets. However, only
scattered information at low spatial and temporal resolution have been
produced to date for the Mediterranean area. This paper has exploited, for
Southern and Central Italy (Mediterranean Sub-Regional Area), an
unprecedented historical dataset as an attempt to model seasonal (winter and
summer) air temperatures in pre-instrumental time (back to 1500). Combining
information derived from proxy documentary data and large-scale simulation,
a statistical methodology in the form of multiscale-temperature regression
(MTR)-model was developed to adapt larger-scale estimations to the
sub-regional temperature pattern. The modelled response lacks essentially of
autocorrelations among the residuals (marginal or any significance in the
Durbin-Watson statistic), and agrees well with the independent data from the
validation sample (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient >0.60). The
advantage of the approach is not merely increased accuracy in estimation.
Rather, it relies on the ability to extract (and exploit) the right
information to replicate coherent temperature series in historical times.
Citation: Diodato, N., Bellocchi, G., Bertolin, C., and Camuffo, D.: Multiscale regression model to infer historical temperatures in a central Mediterranean sub-regional area, Clim. Past Discuss., 6, 2625-2649, doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2625-2010, 2010.