CPD Climate of the Past Discussions CPD 1814-9359 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010 Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings Sánchez-Sesma J. 1 Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, México 05 10 2010 6 5 2055 2069 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/6/2055/2010/cpd-6-2055-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/6/2055/2010/cpd-6-2055-2010.pdf

The response of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to solar and volcanic radiative forcings over the past millennium is reanalyzed and extrapolated based on historical data and numerical experiments employing the Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model of the tropical Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere system. The results suggest a self-similarity of the centennial scale component of the reconstructed ENSO record with a shift in frequencies around 1700 AD when the frequencies almost double. This shift of regime puts forward the non-linearity of ENSO climate with a possible centennial scale forecast, suggesting an ENSO trend toward La Niña conditions for the next three decades.

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