| Volumes and Issues Contents of Issue 5 |
www.clim-past-discuss.net/6/2055/2010/
doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, México
Abstract. The response of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to solar and volcanic radiative forcings over the past millennium is reanalyzed and extrapolated based on historical data and numerical experiments employing the Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model of the tropical Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere system. The results suggest a self-similarity of the centennial scale component of the reconstructed ENSO record with a shift in frequencies around 1700 AD when the frequencies almost double. This shift of regime puts forward the non-linearity of ENSO climate with a possible centennial scale forecast, suggesting an ENSO trend toward La Niña conditions for the next three decades.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 4831 KB) Supplement (3403 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 3 Comments) Publication in CP not foreseen
Citation: Sánchez-Sesma, J.: Technical Note: Multi-centennial scale analysis and synthesis of an ensemble mean response of ENSO to solar and volcanic forcings, Clim. Past Discuss., 6, 2055-2069, doi:10.5194/cpd-6-2055-2010, 2010. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
