Climate of the Past Discussions www.clim-past-discuss.net 1814-9340 1814-9359 5 3 2009 10.5194/cpd-5-1659-2009 http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/5/1659/2009/ http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/5/1659/2009/cpd-5-1659-2009.html http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/5/1659/2009/cpd-5-1659-2009.pdf 1659 1696 2009-06-25 Northern high-latitude climate change between the mid and late Holocene – Part 2: Model-data comparisons Q. Zhang qiong@misu.su.se H. Sundqvist A. Moberg K. Holmgren H. Körnich J. Nilsson Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden The solar orbital forcing induced changes in insolation at the mid-Holocene compared to the late Holocene, which causes an amplification of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere in the earlier period. The climate response over northern high latitudes, to this change in forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) simulations with different complexity of the climate system. The model results have also been compared with available reconstructions from temperature proxy data. Both the reconstructions and the PMIP2 models show a warm response in annual mean temperature, as well as in summer and winter temperature. The model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks (ocean, sea-ice, vegetation) in the climate model. An objective selection method is applied in the model-data comparison to evaluate the capability of the climate model in reproducing the spatial response pattern. The comparisons between the reconstructions and the best-fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely to the insolation and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean. A pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in model simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental reconstructions. The warming over Barents Sea corresponds to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The strengthened sea level pressure gradient may have caused a northward shift of the Atlantic storm track. It results in enhanced westerlies towards the northern Eurasia, which may be responsible for the winter warming over northern Fennoscandia and northern Siberia. Berger, A L.: Long-Term Variations of Daily Insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2362–2367, 1978. 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