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<article language="en">
	<journal>
		<journal_title>Climate of the Past Discussions</journal_title>
		<journal_url>www.clim-past-discuss.net</journal_url>
		<issn>1814-9340</issn>
		<eissn>1814-9359</eissn>
		<volume_number>4</volume_number>
		<issue_number>4</issue_number>
		<publication_year>2008</publication_year>
	</journal>
	<doi>10.5194/cpd-4-897-2008</doi>
	<article_url>http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/897/2008/</article_url>
	<abstract_html>http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/897/2008/cpd-4-897-2008.html</abstract_html>
	<fulltext_pdf>http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/897/2008/cpd-4-897-2008.pdf</fulltext_pdf>
	<start_page>897</start_page>
	<end_page>928</end_page>
	<publication_date>2008-08-12</publication_date>
	<article_title content_type="html">Western Europe is warming much faster than expected</article_title>
	<authors>
		<author numeration="1" affiliations="1">
			<name>G. J. van Oldenborgh</name>
			<email>oldenborgh@knmi.nl</email>
		</author>
		<author numeration="2" affiliations="1">
			<name>S. Drijfhout</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="3" affiliations="1">
			<name>A. van Ulden</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="4" affiliations="1">
			<name>R. Haarsma</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="5" affiliations="1">
			<name>A. Sterl</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="6" affiliations="1">
			<name>C. Severijns</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="7" affiliations="1">
			<name>W. Hazeleger</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="8" affiliations="2">
			<name>H. Dijkstra</name>
		</author>
	</authors>
	<affiliations>
		<affiliation numeration="1" content_type="html">Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="2" content_type="html">Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands</affiliation>
	</affiliations>
	<abstract content_type="html">The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible
in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the
trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which
up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale,
because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend
in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated
by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random
fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate
fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are
important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A
misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the
coast. Many of these processes continue to affect trends in projections for
the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe
probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change.</abstract>
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