<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="no"?>
<!DOCTYPE article SYSTEM "http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/inc/cpd/copernicus.dtd">
<article language="en">
	<journal>
		<journal_title>Climate of the Past Discussions</journal_title>
		<journal_url>www.clim-past-discuss.net</journal_url>
		<issn>1814-9340</issn>
		<eissn>1814-9359</eissn>
		<volume_number>4</volume_number>
		<issue_number>5</issue_number>
		<publication_year>2008</publication_year>
	</journal>
	<doi>10.5194/cpd-4-1047-2008</doi>
	<article_url>http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/1047/2008/</article_url>
	<abstract_html>http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/1047/2008/cpd-4-1047-2008.html</abstract_html>
	<fulltext_pdf>http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/4/1047/2008/cpd-4-1047-2008.pdf</fulltext_pdf>
	<start_page>1047</start_page>
	<end_page>1060</end_page>
	<publication_date>2008-10-01</publication_date>
	<article_title content_type="html">A nonlinear method for detecting climate mutation: a case study for summer climate change in China</article_title>
	<authors>
		<author numeration="1" affiliations="1,3">
			<name>S. Q. Wan</name>
			<email>wan_sq@163.com</email>
		</author>
		<author numeration="2" affiliations="2">
			<name>G. L. Feng</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="3" affiliations="1">
			<name>L. Wang</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="4" affiliations="1">
			<name>C. H. Gu</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="5" affiliations="1">
			<name>Y. L. Hu</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="6" affiliations="1">
			<name>G. H. Zhou</name>
		</author>
	</authors>
	<affiliations>
		<affiliation numeration="1" content_type="html">Yangzhou Meteorological Office, Yangzhou 225009, China</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="2" content_type="html">LCS, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="3" content_type="html">Department of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou Universtiy, Lanzhou 730000, China</affiliation>
	</affiliations>
	<abstract content_type="html">In this paper, we explored the dynamical mechanism of anomalous summer
climate late 1970s in China applying a new method, i.e., a dynamics index-Q
based on phase-space reconstruction. The interesting results show that
different climate variable have the similar dynamics property in different
regions, they reflect an intrinsic dynamics interior climate system, which
may be associated with the teleconnection wave trains mainly triggered by
the Tibetan Plateau, and reveals some of causes making North China drought
indirectly. However, the Phenomena are hardly possible found via any
statistic methodology.</abstract>
	<references>
		<reference numeration="1" content_type="text"> Dai, X. G., Wang, P., and Chou, J. F.: Multi-scale characteristics of North China precipitation and the interdecadal decay of the summer monsoon, Chinese Sci. Bull., 48, 2483–2487, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="2" content_type="text"> Feng, G. L., Cao, H. X., Gao, X. Q., Dong, W. J., and Chou, J. F.: Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 701–709, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="3" content_type="text"> Feng, G. L., Dong, W. J., and Li, J. P.: On temporal evolution of precipitation probability of the Yangtze River delta in the last 50 years, Chinese Phys., 13, 1582–1587, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="4" content_type="text"> Feng, G. L., Gong, Z. Q., Dong, W. J., and Li, J. P.: Abrupt climate change detection based on heuristic segmentation algorithm, Acta Phys. Sin.-Ch. Ed., 54, 5494–5499, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="5" content_type="text"> Feng, G. L., Hou, W., and Dong, W. J.: A technique for distinguishing dynamical species in the temperature time series of Yangtze River delta, Acta Phys. Sin.-Ch. Ed., 55, 962–968, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="6" content_type="text"> Feng, S., Hu, Q., and Qian, W.: Quality control of daily meteorological data in China, 1951–2000: a new dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 853–870, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="7" content_type="text"> Fu, C. B. and Wang, Q.: The Definition and Detection of the Abrupt Climatic Change, Sci. Atmos. Sinica, 16, 482–493, 1992. </reference>
		<reference numeration="8" content_type="text"> Goossens, C. H. and Berger, A.: Annual and seasonal climatic variations over the Northern Hemisphere and Europe during the last century, Ann. Geophys., 4, 385–400, 1986. </reference>
		<reference numeration="9" content_type="text"> Grassberger, P. and Procaccia, I.: Measuring the strangeness of strange attractors [J], Physica D, 9, 189–208, 1983. </reference>
		<reference numeration="10" content_type="text"> Grassberger, P.: An optimized box-assisted algorithm for fractal dimensions, Phys. Lett. A, 148, 63–68, 1990. </reference>
		<reference numeration="11" content_type="text"> Li, C. Q. and Pei, L. Q.: A method for distinguishing dynamical species in Chaotic time series, Acta Phys. Sin.-Ch. Ed., 52, 2114–2120, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="12" content_type="text"> Li, J. P. and Chou, J. F.: Advances in Nonlinear Atmospheric Dynamics, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27, 653–673, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="13" content_type="text"> Li, J. P. and Wang, J. X. L.: A New North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Its Variability, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 661–676, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="14" content_type="text"> Manuca, R. and Savit, R.: Stationarity and nonstationarity in time series analysis, Physica D: Nonlin. Phenomena, 99, 134–161, 1996. </reference>
		<reference numeration="15" content_type="text"> Namias, J.: Some Causes of United States Drought, J. Appl. Meteorol., 22, 30–39, 1983. </reference>
		<reference numeration="16" content_type="text"> Provanzale, A., Smith, L. A., Vio, R., and Murante, G.: Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series, Physica D, 58, 31–49, 1992. </reference>
		<reference numeration="17" content_type="text"> Sauer, T.: Reconstruction of dynamical systems from interspike intervals, Phys. Rev. Lett., 72, 3811–3814, 1994. </reference>
		<reference numeration="18" content_type="text"> Savit, R. and Green, M.: Time series and dependent variables, Physica D, 50, 95–116, 1991. </reference>
		<reference numeration="19" content_type="text"> Shi, N. and Zhu, Q. G.: Studies on the northern early summer teleconnection patterns: their interannual variations and relation to drought/flood in China, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 10, 155–168, 1993. </reference>
		<reference numeration="20" content_type="text"> Shi, N.: Secular variation of winter atmospheric teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and its relation with China&apos;s climate change, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 54, 675–683, 1996. </reference>
		<reference numeration="21" content_type="text"> Shi, N., Deng, Z. W., Pan, W. G., and Yang, Y.: A preliminary study of the northern winter SLP climate base state and its climate variability and effects, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24, 795–803, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="22" content_type="text"> Shi, N., Huang, X. X., and Yang, Y.: Spatiotemporal features of the trend variation of global land annual rainfall fields from 1948–2000, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27, 971–982, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="23" content_type="text"> Stockton, C. W. and Meko, D. M.: Drought recurrence in the great plains as reconstructed from long-term tree-ring records, J. Appl. Meteorol., 22, 17–29, 1983. </reference>
		<reference numeration="24" content_type="text"> Yamamoto, R., Iwashima, T., and Sanga, N. K.: Climatic jump: a hypothesis in climate diagnosis, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 63, 1157–1160, 1985. </reference>
		<reference numeration="25" content_type="text"> Yamamoto, R., Iwashima, T., Sanga, N. K., and Hoshiai, M.: An analysis of climatic jump, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 64, 273–281, 1986. </reference>
	</references>
</article>

